Indonesia Blocks Polymarket After Users Bet on President Prabowo's Political Survival
A $46,000 wager on an early presidential exit triggered a government crackdown that exposes the deepening global fault line between prediction markets and gambling law.
Written by OutOfToken AI
June 4, 2026 · 4 min read · Synthesized from reporting by CoinTelegraph · How this works
Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs pulled the plug on Polymarket on May 25, classifying the blockchain-based prediction platform as an illegal online gambling operation after a politically charged market betting on President Prabowo Subianto's early departure from office drew $46,000 in trading volume and caught the attention of regulators. The move adds Southeast Asia's largest economy — home to roughly 280 million people — to a growing blacklist that now spans more than 30 countries and territories. For Polymarket, the ban is the most politically loaded yet.
The Bet That Broke the Camel's Back
Prabowo Subianto assumed Indonesia's presidency in October 2024, and by May 2025 Polymarket users had already opened a market speculating on whether he would complete his term. That market quietly accumulated $46,000 in volume before regulators noticed — a modest figure by crypto standards, but politically incendiary in a country where elected leadership is a sensitive subject. Alexander Sabar, director general of digital space supervision at the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs, made the government's position explicit: wrapping a wager in blockchain technology or denominating it in crypto assets does not transform gambling into something legally distinct. The platform was blocked the same day officials went public with the decision.
Gambling Law as a Regulatory Weapon
Indonesia's legal framework leaves little ambiguity — gambling in virtually all forms is prohibited, and the government has a documented history of using that prohibition broadly against offshore platforms it considers destabilizing to public order or financial stability. Cryptocurrency services have faced similar treatment when regulators determined they posed systemic risks. In Polymarket's case, the ministry framed the crackdown not as a political intervention but as consistent enforcement of existing gambling statutes, sidestepping any suggestion that the specific subject matter of the market — a sitting president's tenure — influenced the decision. Whether that framing holds up to scrutiny is another question entirely.
""Platforms allowing users to wager money on uncertain outcomes remain gambling products even when using blockchain technology or crypto assets." — Alexander Sabar, Director General of Digital Space Supervision, Indonesia's Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs"
A Global Crackdown With No Clear Endpoint
Indonesia's block arrives as Polymarket finds itself navigating an increasingly hostile international regulatory environment. The platform is currently banned or geo-restricted in more than 30 jurisdictions, including Australia, France, Germany, Singapore, Thailand, and the United Kingdom. Each country has arrived at the same destination via different legal routes — gambling statutes, financial services regulations, or outright sovereign authority to restrict online content — but the cumulative effect is the same. Polymarket, which surged into mainstream visibility during the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle when it processed hundreds of millions of dollars in political outcome bets, is discovering that its core product is treated as a gambling instrument in most of the world outside the United States, where it also remains unavailable to domestic users following a 2022 CFTC settlement.
The Indonesia block signals something more consequential than another entry on a geo-restriction list. When a government explicitly cites the political subject matter of a market — even while officially denying that subject matter was the trigger — it establishes a precedent that prediction markets betting on sovereign leadership are a distinct category of regulatory risk. As Polymarket and its competitors push deeper into political forecasting, that precedent will travel. The question is no longer whether governments will push back against crypto-native prediction markets, but how many will follow Indonesia's template of deploying gambling law as the instrument of choice.
Editorial Note
Indonesia has a history of blocking gambling platforms and cryptocurrency services that it views as threats to financial stability or public order. President Prabowo Subianto took office in October 2024, and prediction markets betting on political outcomes have faced regulatory scrutiny globally. CoinTelegraph is a reputable crypto news source, though the specific claim about blocking Polymarket specifically over presidential exit bets would benefit from verification through Indonesian regulatory announcements.
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